The challenge for Biden and Democrats in Wisconsin: a record-high enthusiasm gap

President Biden’s trip to Milwaukee on March 13 had an apparent political purpose: to motivate Democrats in a city whose turnout could help decide the 2024 race. But the turnout problems for Wisconsin Democrats go beyond Milwaukee this year. A huge enthusiasm gap confronts Biden and his party. We’ve seen it in national polling.

And we’re seeing that in Wisconsin, where the enthusiasm difference between Democrats and Republicans reached an all-time high in the Marquette Law School poll earlier this year.

In Marquette’s most recent Wisconsin survey, done at the end of January, 63% of Republican voters indicated they were “very enthusiastic” about voting for president and other positions this year. Only 39% of Democrats said so.

That is by far the greatest partisan discrepancy (24 points) ever measured by Marquette, which has posed this question 34 times from 2014 to 2024.

It’s not that Republican enthusiasm is soaring. In fact, it’s a little bit below average, historically, and below where it was four years ago. (The same is true for independent voters).

What’s driving this political divide is that Democratic enthusiasm has been so historically low, whether owing to concerns about Biden’s age, fears of a Donald Trump victory, dismay at the war in Gaza, or other causes.

Enthusiasm among Democratic voters in Wisconsin touched its lowest point ever in Marquette’s polling in a survey last October. Then it plummeted considerably further in late January. In that final poll, enthusiasm was lower among Democratic voters (39% were “very enthusiastic”) than it was among independent voters (46%), which had never happened before in this survey.

“Right now, I think it’s clear Trump supporters are pretty enthused about him, and it’s Biden’s (supporters) that aren’t as enthused,” Marquette pollster Charles Franklin said.

The great political question, of course, is whether this portends a Democratic turnout problem in November.

That’s not a simple question to answer. It is, of course, better to have an enthusiastic base than not. But as Franklin emphasizes, enthusiasm is a fluid measure. It can alter over an election year, and we could see it shift in polls to come.  Nor is enthusiasm a perfect indication of how likely someone is to vote.

The correlation between enthusiasm and turnout is not inconsequential, but it is not extremely robust either,” says Franklin.

Imagine a Democratic voter who is tepid about Biden but very eager to vote against former President Trump.  That voter may tell a pollster that he or she is not thrilled about the election but still be dead set on casting a ballot.

If this kind of voter is driving the excitement divide, then it might not represent a substantial turnout discrepancy.

On the other side, imagine a more casual Democratic voter whose lack of excitement for Biden or pessimism about the race is the difference between turning out and not turning out. The 2024 polling is full of indicators suggesting Biden’s support is soft among young voters and voters of color, two groups that Democrats count on to turn out and support the party’s nominees by significant numbers.

If this kind of voter is driving the excitement divide and the gap maintains, then Democrats could have a turnout problem in the fall.

The enthusiasm difference between the parties has shown in national surveys as well. In a national study Marquette did last month, 56% of Republican voters were very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 38% of Democratic voters.

“I think enthusiasm right now is reflecting a certain malaise among Democrats about Joe Biden and fear of Trump’s apparent strength in recent polls,” Franklin added. “It doesn’t necessarily mean these Democrats will stay home, but it does raise the question of whether Democrats are as positively engaged in the campaign this year as they were in 2020.”

The percentages looked significantly different in the early months of 2020, when Trump was the incumbent president and Democrats were choosing their nominee.

In Marquette’s early Wisconsin polling that year, Democrats were a tiny bit more enthused about the election than Republicans, and considerably more excited than now: 75% of Democratic voters were “very enthusiastic” about voting in 2020 in January. That increased to 80% in February and averaged 73% during the duration of the election year.

Has this excitement measure associated at all with winning and losing elections? Marquette began asking this question in the 2014 election cycle and has continued in every election year since then, save 2016.

In 2014, Republicans enjoyed a continuous edge in enthusiasm and ended up winning that year’s top race in Wisconsin, for governor.

In 2018, Democrats enjoyed a continuous edge in enthusiasm and ended up winning both important statewide races, for governor and U.S. Senate.

In 2020 and 2022, the Marquette poll indicated fewer differences between the parties on this subject, and the election outcomes were close and mixed.

But in recent surveys on the 2024 race, we’re in unknown ground, with enthusiasm among Democratic voters in Marquette’s past two polls running around 20 to 30 points below historic averages.

These polls don’t tell us precisely what is driving the political enthusiasm divide. By some measures, Democrats don’t like Biden any less than Republicans like Trump.

In fact, Biden’s popularity ratings among Democratic voters in Wisconsin (whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the candidate) have been a touch better than Trump’s ratings with Republican voters.  But those figures don’t actually measure excitement or passion.

Marquette’s recent poll provided two apparent signals concerning the enthusiasm difference. One is that Democratic voters were considerably more likely than Republican voters to view their own party’s presidential nominee as too old.

The other is that Republican voters were more enthusiastic about winning: 46% of GOP voters said they regarded Trump as the “definite” winner versus Biden, while 28% of Democratic voters said they saw Biden as the “definite” winner against Trump.

And there is a broader body of polling in this cycle that suggests Democratic voters are more inspired by their opposition to Trump than their support for Biden, which could help explain a party divide in enthusiasm.

In these past two Marquette polls, Republican voters were also more likely than Democrats to indicate they were certain to vote in 2024—aanother indicator of intensity but not a perfect forecast of turnout either.

Enthusiasm is one of many barometers that bear watching between now and Election Day. The electorate as a whole is unenthused compared to prior elections. But that’s especially true for Democratic voters.

It’s possible that events, Biden’s performance, or increasing optimism about the election among Democrats might modify that pattern between now and November.

It would surely be rare this autumn to see one party’s voters exhibiting so little excitement about a huge election. And if that happened, it would be extraordinary to see that party come out on top.