In 2024, where will the Michigan offense take a step back?

As we approach into the summer months, there are still plenty of unknowns ahead of the 2024 season. One thing is certain though: the Michigan Wolverines will look a bit different this fall, especially on offense, having lost pieces like J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, majority of the offensive line, and Jim Harbaugh.

There is still plenty of talent in Ann Arbor, but 2024 will not be precisely the same as last season, at least when it comes to the gameplay itself.

We will utilize this space over the following several weeks to look at some areas that might fall down a bit, but also other spots the Wolverines might really see an improvement this year. We will start first with the offense and some measures that could slide down the ranks a bit with all of the changes to the players.

Michigan suffered just five picks last season, compared to 18 (!) by the defense, ranking fifth-best and third-best in the country, respectively.

Four of those occured in the non-conference slate, including McCarthy’s strange three-interception performance against Bowling Green. He would throw just one more pick throughout the entire season, getting bested by now-Wolverine Jaishawn Barham when at Maryland.

Whoever Michigan puts at quarterback is going to be a step down from McCarthy. The expected favorite right now is Alex Orji, whose main shortcoming happens to be accuracy.

McCarthy was highly exact and very meticulous, and the switch to Orji might be pretty startling in this aspect. Not too audacious of a claim to expect the interception total to rise in 2024.

Last year, Michigan was one of the country’s finest fourth-down teams, converting 17-of-22 attempts for a 77 percent conversion rate, a top-three mark. That largely was because to Blake Corum, but Harbaugh and Sherrone Moore had plenty of trust in McCarthy making the right decision as well.

This ability to keep the chains going was crucial given the Wolverines’ preferred style of play, with long drives being more prevalent than home runs.

While Kalel Mullings and Benjamin Hall could be excellent in short-yardage scenarios and Orji is presumably suited for them as well, I would be surprised to see Michigan as dominant in this area in 2024. I think Moore will want to stay aggressive, but he is not Harbaugh.

With much of the offensive line new to the starting lineup too, I anticipate the offense taking a step back when it comes to fourth down, both in willingness to go for it and successful conversions.

I am a little startled to read that Michigan was just tied for 37th in sacks allowed last season, suffering 20 on the year. Though this number is slightly inflated due to a couple more games, McCarthy and company were not nearly outstanding in this regard. Of course, a sack is preferable to an errant pass, but they do tend to kill drives for attacks like the Wolverines’.

If Orji is under center, he undoubtedly will provide a unique running element at the position. However, he comes into the fall with practically no experience, and that might lead to scenarios where he attempts to keep a play alive too long by trusting his legs and ultimately ending up getting sacked. I do not think this will be a significant weakness for Michigan this year, but I bet the sack total does climb up.

The Michigan offense was on the field for almost 32 minutes a game last year, a top-20 number nationally. With a powerful run game and often overmatched opponents, it is no wonder that the Wolverines kept in control and cruised through much of the season. While time of possession is not the only thing that matters, when paired with a top-15 scoring offense it surely says something.

Perhaps this is related to some of the comments above, but I see Michigan regressing a bit here as well. Drives will stall out without Corum and the veteran offensive line, and though Orji might prolong some possessions with his legs, he will surely give some away via turnovers as well.

The offense might still wind up scoring plenty, but I think it will look and run a bit differently than the past couple seasons.