Update on Israel and Iran: US authorities claim that Israel miscalculated the Iranian attack on Damascus. 

According to the New York Times, the Israelis have a “badly miscalculated” reaction to the Iranian attack on Damascus.

The New York Times said on Wednesday that Israeli officials misjudged the intensity of Iran’s response to the April 1 attack on a building in Damascus that resulted in the deaths of several commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In retaliation, Iran launched a volley of hundreds of missiles and drones.

According to various American officials participating in high-level negotiations following the strike, including a senior Israeli official, “the Israelis had badly miscalculated, thinking that Iran would not react strongly,” the site stated.

Among those slain in the purported Israeli attack on what Iran claimed to be a consulate structure in the capital of Syria were two generals.

According to the report, US officials were upset that they had only been notified a few minutes in advance of the Damascus strike and that the message had been sent along as a “low-level notification,” failing to adequately emphasize the strike’s seriousness.

According to the report, US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin called Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant two days after the strike and “complained directly” that the attack would put US forces in the vicinity at risk and had given little time to bolster defenses.

The Times also provided new information on the preparations for the strike and the flurry of diplomatic activity that transpired between the US and Iran through intermediaries in an attempt to accommodate an Iranian reaction that would prevent a regional conflict.The Times was informed by two Israeli officials that the strike’s preparations started two months prior to its execution.

The strategy was then accepted by the war cabinet on March 22, according to the publication.

The publication claimed to have seen official defense documents outlining possible Iranian replies, but none of them anticipated the magnitude of the strike that Tehran launched at Israel over the weekend with over 300 ballistic missiles and drones. Along with US, British, French, and Jordanian forces, Israel’s air defense systems intercepted almost all of them. A 7-year-old girl was severely hurt by the few rockets that managed to get through and cause minor damage at an aviation base.

The report claims that Israeli intelligence first projected that Iran would launch no more than ten surface-to-surface missiles towards Israel. The report stated that they revised the estimate last week to 60 to 70 surface-to-surface missiles, but this also proved to be a glaring miscalculation.

On the day of the hit, Iran’s Foreign Ministry called the Swiss ambassador later in the evening to send a message to Washington expressing its fury and holding the US responsible.

Iran was informed by the US that it was not a part of the attack and that it did not desire war through Oman, Turkey, and Switzerland.

Additionally, Iran conveyed through diplomatic channels its desire to avoid conflict with either Israel or, worse, the United States.

At a crucial meeting between the Iranian foreign minister and his Omani colleague on April 7 in Muscat, Oman, a diplomat familiar with the matter told the Times that Iran had to retaliate against Israel but would limit its response to prevent a regional conflict.

Senior US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US President Joe Biden, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., were at the time in close communication with their counterparts in Iraq, China, India, and Israel, as well as with NATO allies, officials said.

According to a US official, Washington understood it would not be able to stop Iran from attacking, but it still hoped to curtail the scope of the attack.

Iran was preparing its preparations to ensure that it would at least receive some hits, an Israeli official claimed, even while it was messaging that its strike would not compel Israel to retaliate.

Blinken met with Israeli authorities to reassure them that the United States would support their defense of the nation, but he also cautioned against an impulsive counteroffensive that would not have enough thought.

In the meantime, US and Israeli intelligence services worked to piece together Iran’s plans with help from Jordan and other nations in the region. US and Israeli officials claimed to have learned that Tehran planned to strike military targets rather than civilian ones.

According to Israeli officials, the intelligence provided Israel with a sense of the types of weapons it might encounter and the locations that would be targeted. Certain air bases had their families evacuated, while the planes were transferred to safer areas.

Iranian officials disclosed that during the course of the Iranian strike, communication between the US and Iran was facilitated by the Revolutionary Guards Corps, which conducted the attack, and Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

As the onslaught was coming to an end early on Sunday morning, Iran called the Swiss ambassador once more, this time to a Guards post, and instructed her to convey that the US should stay out of the matter and that Iran would reply much more forcefully, but without prior notice, should Israel strike back.

According to the article, US efforts are currently concentrated on persuading Israel’s leaders that a successful defense constitutes a win necessitating no additional military action.

The European Union, together with the US and other Western allies, have denounced Iran’s strike and threatened to put penalties on the country’s drone and missile manufacturing industries.

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