The Western fear of escalation will gift Putin a historic win in Ukraine.
Millions of Ukrainians watched with mixed emotions over the weekend as a coalition of countries banded together to safeguard Israeli airspace from Iranian bombardment.
Ukraine’s reaction was hardly surprising. After all, this amazing display of international air defense efficiency was exactly what the Ukrainians themselves have been clamoring for ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of their country began in February 2022.
In the aftermath of the operation to defend Israel, Western authorities rapidly dismissed any clear analogies with Ukraine. “Different conflicts, different airspace, different threat picture,” commented US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron was even more explicit, stating that the employment of British jets to fire down Russian drones in Ukraine would lead to a “dangerous escalation” in the war.
For Ukrainian viewers, Cameron’s anti-escalation stance was all too familiar. For the past two years, Ukraine’s Western partners have worked to find a difficult balance between assisting the country’s self-defense and avoiding anything that could lead to a wider European war.
This overarching fear of escalation has dictated the Western response to Russia’s incursion and has been brilliantly exploited by Putin to constrain military support for Ukraine.
On the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion, fear of escalation was already inhibiting Western governments from supplying arms to Ukraine. Once the attack had begun, it took valuable months for the Biden administration to dispatch artillery and HIMARS missile systems. Almost an entire year had gone by before Western partners ultimately agreed on plans to deploy a very small number of new tanks.
This trend of delays and half-measures shows no indications of changing. With the Russian invasion now well into its third year, Ukraine is still expecting to receive the first batch of F-16 fighter fighters. Meanwhile, officials in Kyiv are anxiously calling on partners to provide them with long-range missiles and air defense systems.
The West’s fixation with avoiding escalation at all costs runs against basic military doctrine and has been important in preventing more Ukrainian battlefield success.
When Putin’s invading army was at its weakest in 2022, Ukraine was denied the backing it needed to break through Russia’s fragile defense lines in the south. By the time Kyiv’s partners had agreed to deploy the necessary offensive force, it was too late; Moscow had organized an extra 300,000 troops and fortified the front lines of the battle.
Throughout the invasion, Russia has repeatedly stoked Western fears of escalation through a mixture of bellicose comments, backchannel messaging, and smart influence operations. The Kremlin’s most effective intimidation strategy has been nuclear blackmail. In late 2022, for example, US intercepts began picking up vague but disturbing “chatter” concerning Russian preparations for the use of nuclear weapons.
Many feel this was an intentional tactic to boost the legitimacy of Putin’s public nuclear saber-rattling. It looks to have worked. The intelligence led to heated debate in the White House and nuclear wargaming in the Pentagon, with Biden administration officials engaging in increased diplomatic outreach to Moscow.
Crucially, concerns over a possible Russian nuclear reaction tempered Western excitement to drive home Ukraine’s advantage at a time when Putin’s army was retreating in disarray.
In addition to blunting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities, the West’s desire to prevent escalation is hurting Kyiv’s ability to defend itself. For the previous two years, Ukraine has been barred from utilizing Western weapons against targets within Russia. In recent weeks, US officials have even objected to Ukraine using its own weaponry to attack Russian facilities.
These artificial constraints have produced an unprecedented situation that aggravates the existing imbalance of power between Russia and Ukraine. While Russia is able to strike Ukrainian infrastructure at anytime, Ukrainian commanders are severely limited in their capacity to target the air bases, production facilities, and logistical centers inside Russia that are being used to attack Ukraine.
The West’s reliance on escalation control has prolonged the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to overcome initial defeats and regain momentum. It has prevented the Ukrainian military from building on the momentum of late 2022 and has converted a dynamic battle of mobility into an attritional fight that significantly benefits Russia.
By allowing themselves to be intimidated by the possibility of Russian aggression, Western leaders have provided Putin with an effective veto over many areas of military aid for Ukraine. This lack of Western resolve has obviously strengthened the Russian despot.
Policymakers in Europe and the US must now decide whether they intend to continue with this failed policy or eventually commit to a Ukrainian win.
It is still not too late to embrace a more sensible military strategy, but the clock is ticking. Unless Ukraine is given the tools to fight Russia on the battlefield, Putin will score a historic triumph that will change the international security situation.
If it happens, today’s emphasis on avoiding escalation would come to be considered the largest geopolitical error since the appeasement tactics of the 1930s.
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